Houston Returns Almost Everyone but Must Answer for Its Secondary

Houston is bringing back ninety four percent of its production from a season that ended with real momentum, and that continuity starts under center with Conner Weigman. The Cougars project to finish 7-5, a team good enough to win the games it should and competitive in the ones it should not, but one held back by a defensive back four that still has to prove itself in Big 12 play.

Weigman, the receiver room, and a veteran front

The quarterback play is the foundation. Weigman grades among the best passers in the country, and he has a receiver room that grades just as high, giving Houston one of the more dangerous passing combinations in the Big 12. The linebacker corps is a strength as well, and the addition of Jaden Yates from Ole Miss adds another experienced body to that group in the middle of the defense. Up front, Houston returns a genuinely veteran offensive line, with Cedric Melton, Dalton Merryman, Hingano Hautau, Jason Brooks Jr., Matthew Wykoff and Shadre Hurst all back, and Northwestern transfer Hayden Wright added at tackle. That group grades as solid rather than elite, but the experience and depth are real, and it gives Weigman time to work with his receivers rather than run for his life. This is the fourth year under the current coaching staff, and the roster's continuity, both on the depth chart and in scheme, shows in how much of the two-deep is already established.

The secondary is the swing group

The concern is on the back end of the defense. Houston's secondary grades near the bottom of the roster, well below the level of the passing game it plays behind and well below the rest of the defense around it. Blake Thompson, JD Rhym and Javion White are the names to know there, and the group has talent at the top, but the unit as a whole projects as a weakness against a conference full of capable passing offenses. The defensive line and running back room also grade below average, though Houston used the transfer portal to shore up the front, bringing in Ashton Porter from Oregon and De'Marion Thomas from Oklahoma State to add experience and depth up front. If the secondary tightens up as the season goes, Houston's ceiling rises with it. If it does not, the Cougars will be leaning on their offense to win shootouts rather than controlling games on defense.

A manageable but not easy Big 12 slate

Houston is an underdog in four games: at Texas Tech, at Kansas State, at home against Oklahoma State, and at Utah. Those are the four toughest opponents on the schedule and the games most likely to end as losses. Two more, at home against UCF and against Baylor, sit close to a coin flip and could go either way. Outside of those six games, Houston is favored, which is where the bulk of the projected win total comes from. It is a schedule that rewards consistency more than it demands a signature upset, and a team with Houston's returning production and quarterback play should be able to hold its own in most of the games it is favored to win, even on the road.

Bottom line

Expect 7-5, with a quarterback and receiver room capable of pushing that number higher if the secondary holds up its end. Houston's offense, led by Weigman and a veteran line, should be one of the more efficient units in the Big 12. The defensive back four is the swing factor separating a solid season from a genuinely good one. If it plays even to the level of the rest of the roster, nine wins is within reach.