New Mexico Hands Jason Eck a Nearly Complete Roster in His First Year

New Mexico is walking into a coaching change with almost the entire roster still in the building. Ninety percent of last year's production returns, which is about as soft a landing as a new staff can ask for. Jason Eck takes over as head coach with a veteran offensive line and one of the better linebacker groups in the Mountain West, but the roster still ranks in the bottom third of the country by talent, and that gap between continuity and pure talent is the story of the season. New Mexico projects to 7-5.

The strength is up front

The offensive line is the clearest asset on this roster, grading as a genuine strength and the deepest position group on the team. Isaiah Sillemon, Jaymar Tasi, Jordan Mora, Kaden Robnett, Malik Aliane, Mason Jones and Richard Pearce give New Mexico a full, experienced front that can pave running lanes and buy time regardless of who is under center. Behind that line, the linebacker corps grades as one of the stronger units in the conference, and Nebraska transfer Randolph Kpai gives the group an established, high-level piece to build around. A veteran line paired with a strong linebacker room is a solid foundation for a first-year staff to inherit, even if the rest of the depth chart is uneven.

The skill positions and the defensive front are the question

The concern is what surrounds those two strong groups. Quarterback play grades below average, and the running back and receiver rooms both grade near the bottom of the country, which limits what New Mexico can do once the offensive line does its job. The staff added Kansas State transfer Keagan Johnson and Illinois transfer Shawn Miller at receiver to address that thinness, and both will need to produce right away. On defense, the front four grades near the bottom of the sport, which puts real pressure on a secondary that returns a full group of experienced starters in Abraham Williams, Albert Nunes, Austin Brawley, Azariah Levells, Caleb Coleman and Clint Stephens, plus Ohio transfer Brawley himself arriving with starting experience. That secondary has bodies and reps, but the overall grade there is thin too, so a shaky pass rush could leave the back end exposed more often than the roster on paper suggests.

A schedule that does the heavy lifting

New Mexico is an underdog in four games: at Oklahoma, a long-shot road trip that isn't expected to be competitive, at Hawaii, at home against UNLV, and on the road at San Jose State, the closest of that group. The two true toss-ups are on the road at New Mexico State and at Wyoming, both in the mid-50s in win probability and likely to decide whether this team finishes closer to seven wins or six. Outside of those six games, New Mexico is favored across the rest of the slate, and that volume of winnable games, more than any single strength on the roster, is what pushes the projection to a winning record.

Bottom line

Expect 7-5 in Jason Eck's first year, a record built more on schedule and continuity than on elite talent. The offensive line and linebacker corps give this team a real foundation, and the receiver room got an influx of transfer help, but the roster still grades in the bottom third of the country, and the defensive front is a legitimate soft spot. If the new staff gets even modest development out of the skill positions, seven or eight wins is a realistic ceiling; if the defensive front struggles as its grade suggests, the toss-up games at New Mexico State and Wyoming could tip the other way.