San Jose State's Favorable Slate Masks a Retooling Roster

San Jose State projects to 7-5 in 2026, and the record owes more to a manageable Mountain West schedule than to a deep, talented roster. The Spartans return only about a fifth of last season's production, and the roster overall grades near the bottom of the sport. A strong tight end group and an equally strong linebacker corps give the team a foundation, but almost everywhere else San Jose State is rebuilding on the fly. This is a team built to win the games it is supposed to win, not one built to surprise anybody.

Tight end and linebacker carry the roster

The clearest strengths on this team are at tight end and linebacker, both grading as genuine strengths and standing well above the rest of the roster. That gives the offense a reliable target and the defense a stable second level even while other position groups are still finding their footing. The offensive line, at least on paper, got real reinforcements through the portal: tackles Brian Tapu (Nebraska) and Ikinasio Tupou (BYU) join returning center Joseph Harbert, guards Laakea Kapoi and Sione Nomani, and tackles Peseti Lapuaho and Simeon Afalava. Wide receiver added Anthony Ivey from Penn State to a thin room. On defense, edge rusher Ian Shewell arrived from Arizona State to pair with tackle Gafa Faga and end Quincy Likio, a group that should be closer to average than the rest of the front seven.

The rest of the roster is the question

Outside of tight end and linebacker, the picture is thin. San Jose State's overall talent grades near the bottom of the sport, and returning only about twenty percent of last year's production means a lot of new pieces have to gel quickly. Quarterback Xavier Ward and running back Jabari Bates are back, but both the passing game and the run game grade near the bottom of the league, and the offensive line, even with two portal tackles added, still grades among the weakest units anywhere. The secondary is a similar story: safety Jalen Apalit-Williams and cornerbacks Jalen Bainer and Maliki Crawford return with experience, but the group grades near the bottom of the roster. The defensive line sits closer to the middle, a below-average unit rather than an alarming one, which at least gives the front seven something to lean on. New defensive coordinator Bojay Filimoeatu and defensive backs coach Brian Norwood were brought in specifically to shore up that back end, and how quickly their scheme takes hold will shape how competitive this defense actually is.

A schedule that does the heavy lifting

The slate is where San Jose State makes up ground. The Spartans project as underdogs in four games: on the road at Eastern Michigan, at home against Fresno State, at home against UNLV, and on the road at Hawaii, none of them lopsided matchups. Two more, at Air Force and at home against New Mexico, are close enough to go either way. Outside of those six games, San Jose State is favored, and that mix of a soft nonconference trip and a workable conference draw is what turns a bottom-third roster into a projected seven-win season. Win the toss-ups against Air Force and New Mexico, and eight wins is realistic. Lose them, and six is the more likely floor.

Bottom line

Expect 7-5, a record built on scheduling as much as on talent. San Jose State is now in its third year under the current coaching staff, and the tight end and linebacker groups give this team a real identity on both sides of the ball. But the roster grades thin almost everywhere else, and the offensive skill positions and secondary will need to develop fast for the Spartans to hold serve in the toss-up games. If the new defensive staff gets the back end playing to the level of the front seven, seven wins becomes a floor instead of a ceiling.