SMU's Offense Is Built to Score. Its Defense Is Built to Get Scored On.

SMU is going to be involved in some of the most entertaining games in the country, for better and for worse. The Mustangs project to finish 8-4 and are favored in every game but one, on the strength of a high-powered offense. The catch is a defense that grades near the bottom of the sport, which means SMU's season is going to come down to whether it can outscore its problems. Rhett Lashlee, in his fifth year, returns ninety-one percent of his production and clearly knows how he wants to play.

An offense that can score with anyone

Quarterback Kevin Jennings is the engine, grading among the best in the country, and he has a genuine weapon at tight end in Randy Pittman Jr., whose position group rates near the top of the sport. Jalen Hale gives the receiver room a real threat, and Kendrick Raphael is a capable back. When SMU has the ball, it can move it on anyone, and Lashlee's system is built to push tempo and keep the scoreboard turning.

That offense is the reason the Mustangs are favored in eleven of twelve games. Few defenses on the schedule can keep pace, and SMU wins the games where it gets to trade punches.

The defense is the fault line

The problem is the other side of the ball. SMU's defensive line grades near the bottom of college football, and the secondary is not much better. That is a dangerous combination, because a weak front and a weak back end mean opponents can beat the Mustangs through the air or on the ground. Against lesser teams the offense simply outscores the leak. Against a good one, the defense can turn a winnable game into a track meet SMU loses.

This is a high-variance team. When the offense is clicking and the defense forces even one or two stops, SMU looks like an ACC contender. When the defense cannot get off the field, the margin disappears.

A schedule that gives SMU a chance

The path is favorable. The only projected loss is on the road at Notre Dame, and the closest remaining tests are road trips to Florida State and Louisville plus a home date with Virginia. All of those are winnable, and SMU is favored in each.

If the defense can be merely below average rather than porous, this team wins ten games and plays for the ACC title. If it stays near the bottom, the shootouts catch up and 8-4 is the honest outcome.

Bottom line

Expect 8-4, and expect the scoreboard to work overtime. SMU has a top-tier quarterback, a dangerous offense, and a defense that will decide the season by how often it can get a stop. The talent to win the ACC is on the roster. Whether the Mustangs can defend just enough to reach it is the question that hangs over the whole year.