Arch Manning's Texas Has Everything but an Easy Schedule

Texas has one of the most talented rosters in the country, a quarterback the sport has been waiting on, and a schedule mean enough to hold all of it to 9-3. That is the story of the Longhorns' 2026. Steve Sarkisian, in his sixth year, has assembled a roster that grades elite almost everywhere, and Arch Manning finally has the keys for a full season. The only thing standing between Texas and an undefeated run is one of the hardest slates in the SEC.

Elite on both fronts

Texas is loaded where it matters. The running back room grades at the very top of the sport, the defensive line is right behind it, and the offensive line and linebacker groups are elite. That is a roster built to win in the trenches on both sides, which is the surest foundation there is. When a team can run the ball, stop the run, and rush the passer at a high level, it is in every game it plays.

Manning gives the offense a high ceiling at quarterback, and the receiver room grades among the best in the country. This is a complete offense behind a dominant line, paired with a front seven that can take over a game. The talent is playoff-caliber, full stop.

The one soft spot

If there is a place to attack Texas, it is the secondary, the one unit that grades below the rest of the roster. Against the run-heavy teams on the schedule it will not matter much, but the SEC and the Longhorns' cross-conference draw include offenses that can throw it, and a shaky back end is exactly what those teams hunt. It is the difference between a couple of comfortable wins and a couple of nervous ones.

Seventy-one percent of last year's production returns, so this is not an inexperienced team. It is a talented, veteran roster with one exploitable seam.

A brutal schedule

Here is why the projection stops at 9-3 despite the talent. Texas draws a gauntlet. The Longhorns are projected as an underdog on the road at LSU, and they face near coin-flip games against Ohio State, at Oklahoma, and against Ole Miss. That is four legitimate tests against elite competition, more than almost any team on this list carries.

A roster this good will be favored or close in every one of those games, but the math is unforgiving. Even the best teams lose some coin flips, and Texas has to play several. The record will not reflect how good this team is so much as how hard the road was.

Bottom line

Expect 9-3, with a talent level that belongs in the playoff conversation regardless of the record. Texas is elite in the trenches, has a star at quarterback, and returns a veteran core. The secondary is the lone soft spot, and the schedule is the real obstacle. If Manning's group wins its share of the toss-ups, the Longhorns are a playoff team. The talent is there. The schedule is just going to make them earn every bit of it.