ULM Has the Trenches and the Run Game, Not Much Else

ULM projects to 7-5 in 2026, and the shape of that record tells the real story. The Warhawks can run the ball and hold up in the trenches, but the passing game and the secondary are among the thinnest units in the league. With eighty-three percent of last year's production back and a schedule that puts nearly a third of the slate within a coin flip, this is a team whose floor and ceiling both hinge on close games going their way.

The strength: the ground game and the front

ULM's identity starts with the run. Running back Zach Palmer-Smith returns as the lead back, and Charlotte transfer Donald Chaney Jr. gives the room another proven ball carrier, backing a group that grades as a genuine strength. That run game works because the offensive line, led by Jay Mickle and interior lineman Sean Dugery, grades as solid and physical, one of the more dependable units on the roster. The defensive line matches it, with Kevontay Wells and Dylan Howell anchoring a front that also grades as a real strength. Put simply, ULM wants to win close games in the trenches, running the ball on offense and controlling the line of scrimmage on defense.

The problem: the passing game and the secondary

Everything built around the perimeter is a different story. The receiver room grades near the bottom of the sport, and the quarterback position is not far ahead of it, even with returning starter Aidan Armenta and Houston transfer Austin Carlisle competing for the job. Clemson transfer Parker Fulghum gives the wide receiver group a name to build around, but the unit as a whole needs real development to become a reliable weapon. Tight ends Julian Nixon and Rylan Green grade out as a more solid option in the passing game than the receivers do, which suggests ULM may lean on its tight ends more than most Sun Belt offenses. On defense, the secondary is the clearest concern on the roster, grading near the bottom of the country even with linebackers Noah Flemmings and Billy Pullen and defensive backs David Godsey Jr. and Jabari Tiller doing what they can in front of it. A strong front seven only goes so far if the back end cannot hold up in coverage.

A schedule built on coin flips

ULM is an underdog in four games: on the road at Mississippi State, at home against FAU, on the road at Troy, and on the road at Appalachian State. None of those are close to even, which points to four likely losses. The difference between a good season and a mediocre one comes down to four more games that sit right on the line: at UAB, at South Alabama, at Arkansas State, and at home against Marshall. Split those close games and the seven-win projection holds. Lose most of them and this is a five or six-win team instead. Given that the overall roster grades below average and sits outside the top half of the country, the projected winning record is a product of a manageable schedule and experience returning at nearly every spot, not a roster built to dominate.

Bottom line

Expect 7-5, built on a physical run game and a solid offensive and defensive line, with the passing attack and secondary as the clear soft spots. The staff enters its third year together after retooling both coordinator staffs, adding a new offensive coordinator and a new pass game coordinator focused on the secondary. If those hires get more out of the passing game and the back end, ULM's floor rises with it. If not, this is a team that wins with its legs and its lines and hopes the schedule breaks its way.