Hot Takes

Notable games of each week: the top toss-ups (predicted within ~4.5 points, ranked by combined roster quality) plus every game between two top-25 teams. These are the matchups that matter most.

Week 0

Stanford(H)#61
vs
Hawaii#58
EdgeHawaii −4.4
Toss-up

Week 1

Michigan(H)#51
vs
Western Michigan#39
EdgeMichigan −0.9
Toss-up
Boston College#35
vs
Cincinnati(H)#85
EdgeCincinnati −4.2
Toss-up
Mississippi State(H)#89
vs
ULM#83
EdgeULM −1.6
Toss-up
West Virginia(H)#124
vs
Coastal Carolina#118
EdgeCoastal Carolina −0.5
Toss-up

Week 2

Texas(H)#7
vs
Ohio State#6
EdgeTexas −10.0
Top 25 Matchup
Oregon#1
vs
Oklahoma State(H)#20
EdgeOregon −10.7
Top 25 Matchup
Arizona#9
vs
BYU(H)#17
EdgeBYU −5.1
Top 25 Matchup
Pittsburgh(H)#19
vs
UCF#21
EdgePittsburgh −11.7
Top 25 Matchup
Tennessee#45
vs
Georgia Tech(H)#47
EdgeGeorgia Tech −1.9
Toss-up
Missouri#34
vs
Kansas(H)#62
EdgeMissouri −2.4
Toss-up
Purdue(H)#79
vs
Wake Forest#49
EdgePurdue −0.2
Toss-up
Alabama#66
vs
Kentucky(H)#69
EdgeAlabama −1.0
Toss-up
UAB(H)#78
vs
ULM#83
EdgeULM −2.2
Toss-up

Week 3

LSU#5
vs
Ole Miss(H)#2
EdgeOle Miss −1.2
Top 25 MatchupToss-up
Houston#25
vs
Texas Tech(H)#8
EdgeTexas Tech −24.0
Top 25 Matchup
Louisville(H)#42
vs
SMU#18
EdgeSMU −0.1
Toss-up
Tennessee(H)#45
vs
Kennesaw State#64
EdgeTennessee −3.7
Toss-up
Wisconsin(H)#46
vs
Eastern Michigan#68
EdgeEastern Michigan −0.4
Toss-up
Georgia Southern#67
vs
Jacksonville State(H)#86
EdgeGeorgia Southern −0.5
Toss-up

Week 4

Georgia(H)#11
vs
Oklahoma#10
EdgeGeorgia −5.3
Top 25 Matchup
LSU(H)#5
vs
Texas A&M#23
EdgeLSU −19.7
Top 25 Matchup
Illinois#22
vs
Ohio State(H)#6
EdgeOhio State −10.8
Top 25 Matchup
UCF(H)#21
vs
TCU#24
EdgeUCF −7.4
Top 25 Matchup
Maryland(H)#44
vs
UCLA#26
EdgeUCLA −1.1
Toss-up
Boston College(H)#35
vs
Virginia Tech#60
EdgeBoston College −1.9
Toss-up
Georgia Tech#47
vs
Stanford(H)#61
EdgeGeorgia Tech −4.2
Toss-up
FAU#55
vs
ULM(H)#83
EdgeFAU −0.8
Toss-up
Troy#77
vs
Utah State(H)#90
EdgeTroy −0.6
Toss-up

Week 5

BYU#17
vs
TCU(H)#24
EdgeBYU −9.1
Top 25 Matchup
UCF#21
vs
Houston(H)#25
EdgeHouston −0.7
Top 25 MatchupToss-up
Florida#32
vs
Missouri(H)#34
EdgeMissouri −0.8
Toss-up
Florida State(H)#33
vs
Virginia#36
EdgeVirginia −2.7
Toss-up
Arizona State(H)#50
vs
Baylor#41
EdgeArizona State −0.7
Toss-up
Louisville#42
vs
NC State(H)#52
EdgeLouisville −3.7
Toss-up

Week 6

Oklahoma#10
vs
Texas#7
EdgeTexas −9.1
Top 25 Matchup
Houston#25
vs
Kansas State(H)#13
EdgeKansas State −10.8
Top 25 Matchup
UCF#21
vs
Oklahoma State(H)#20
EdgeOklahoma State −8.4
Top 25 Matchup
Missouri(H)#34
vs
Texas A&M#23
EdgeTexas A&M −2.5
Toss-up
Duke(H)#30
vs
Georgia Tech#47
EdgeDuke −2.5
Toss-up
Iowa#59
vs
Washington(H)#43
EdgeWashington −4.2
Toss-up
Arizona State(H)#50
vs
Hawaii#58
EdgeArizona State −2.4
Toss-up
Boise State#70
vs
Fresno State(H)#72
EdgeBoise State −0.5
Toss-up

Week 7

Indiana(H)#16
vs
Ohio State#6
EdgeIndiana −2.7
Top 25 MatchupToss-up
Auburn#15
vs
Georgia(H)#11
EdgeGeorgia −3.2
Top 25 MatchupToss-up
Houston(H)#25
vs
Oklahoma State#20
EdgeOklahoma State −4.2
Top 25 MatchupToss-up
Baylor(H)#41
vs
TCU#24
EdgeBaylor −3.4
Toss-up
Michigan State(H)#63
vs
Northwestern#37
EdgeNorthwestern −4.0
Toss-up

Week 8

Ole Miss#2
vs
Texas(H)#7
EdgeTexas −6.8
Top 25 Matchup
Auburn(H)#15
vs
LSU#5
EdgeLSU −2.6
Top 25 MatchupToss-up
Miami(H)#3
vs
Pittsburgh#19
EdgeMiami −10.1
Top 25 Matchup
Illinois(H)#22
vs
Oregon#1
EdgeOregon −12.4
Top 25 Matchup
BYU#17
vs
UCF(H)#21
EdgeBYU −5.2
Top 25 Matchup
Houston#25
vs
Utah(H)#14
EdgeUtah −8.8
Top 25 Matchup
Alabama(H)#66
vs
Texas A&M#23
EdgeTexas A&M −2.1
Toss-up
Delaware#56
vs
Western Kentucky(H)#57
EdgeDelaware −1.8
Toss-up
Kentucky(H)#69
vs
Vanderbilt#53
EdgeVanderbilt −0.2
Toss-up
FAU#55
vs
North Texas(H)#88
EdgeFAU −1.8
Toss-up

Week 9

Oklahoma(H)#10
vs
South Carolina#4
EdgeSouth Carolina −2.1
Top 25 MatchupToss-up
Arizona#9
vs
Texas Tech(H)#8
EdgeTexas Tech −14.0
Top 25 Matchup
Auburn#15
vs
Ole Miss(H)#2
EdgeOle Miss −7.2
Top 25 Matchup
Illinois#22
vs
Maryland(H)#44
EdgeIllinois −3.1
Toss-up
Nebraska(H)#31
vs
Washington#43
EdgeNebraska −4.1
Toss-up
Clemson#48
vs
Florida State(H)#33
EdgeFlorida State −2.5
Toss-up
Hawaii(H)#58
vs
UNLV#38
EdgeHawaii −0.4
Toss-up

Week 10

Ohio State(H)#6
vs
Oregon#1
EdgeOregon −5.1
Top 25 Matchup
Georgia#11
vs
Ole Miss(H)#2
EdgeOle Miss −7.5
Top 25 Matchup
South Carolina(H)#4
vs
Texas A&M#23
EdgeSouth Carolina −17.2
Top 25 Matchup
BYU#17
vs
Utah(H)#14
EdgeBYU −2.7
Top 25 MatchupToss-up
Kansas State(H)#13
vs
Oklahoma State#20
EdgeKansas State −3.0
Top 25 MatchupToss-up
Arizona(H)#9
vs
TCU#24
EdgeArizona −14.5
Top 25 Matchup
Minnesota(H)#28
vs
UCLA#26
EdgeMinnesota −4.1
Toss-up
Boston College(H)#35
vs
Florida State#33
EdgeFlorida State −4.0
Toss-up
Duke#30
vs
NC State(H)#52
EdgeNC State −1.0
Toss-up

Week 11

Ole Miss#2
vs
Oklahoma(H)#10
EdgeOle Miss −2.3
Top 25 MatchupToss-up
LSU(H)#5
vs
Texas#7
EdgeLSU −2.5
Top 25 MatchupToss-up
Arizona(H)#9
vs
Utah#14
EdgeArizona −8.1
Top 25 Matchup
Oklahoma State(H)#20
vs
Texas Tech#8
EdgeTexas Tech −9.2
Top 25 Matchup
Kansas State#13
vs
TCU(H)#24
EdgeKansas State −4.8
Top 25 Matchup
Illinois#22
vs
UCLA(H)#26
EdgeUCLA −1.5
Toss-up
Clemson(H)#48
vs
Georgia Tech#47
EdgeClemson −1.9
Toss-up
Florida#32
vs
Kentucky(H)#69
EdgeFlorida −3.3
Toss-up

Week 12

Georgia#11
vs
South Carolina(H)#4
EdgeSouth Carolina −7.4
Top 25 Matchup
Arizona#9
vs
Kansas State(H)#13
EdgeKansas State −0.8
Top 25 MatchupToss-up
Oklahoma(H)#10
vs
Texas A&M#23
EdgeOklahoma −11.6
Top 25 Matchup
TCU(H)#24
vs
Utah#14
EdgeUtah −2.9
Top 25 MatchupToss-up
Maryland#44
vs
USC(H)#29
EdgeMaryland −1.1
Toss-up
Clemson#48
vs
Duke(H)#30
EdgeDuke −4.1
Toss-up
Florida State(H)#33
vs
NC State#52
EdgeFlorida State −4.4
Toss-up

Week 13

Texas#7
vs
Texas A&M(H)#23
EdgeTexas −13.7
Top 25 Matchup
TCU#24
vs
Texas Tech(H)#8
EdgeTexas Tech −25.0
Top 25 Matchup
Illinois#22
vs
Northwestern(H)#37
EdgeIllinois −3.2
Toss-up
Florida#32
vs
Florida State(H)#33
EdgeFlorida −1.7
Toss-up
Duke#30
vs
Wake Forest(H)#49
EdgeDuke −0.8
Toss-up
Iowa(H)#59
vs
Nebraska#31
EdgeIowa −2.2
Toss-up
Tennessee#45
vs
Vanderbilt(H)#53
EdgeVanderbilt −1.3
Toss-up

Selection: (1) up to 5 toss-ups per week; predicted margin within 4.5 points (after roster matchup, home field, and coach factor), ranked by combined roster ranking (lower combined rank = higher matchup quality); plus (2) every game where both teams are ranked in the top 25, regardless of margin. A game can earn both labels.